To bring this concept into focus, let’s compare blackjack to some other popular games such as slots typically found in most casinos. Take craps, for example. Let’s assume the shooter rolls an 8, composed of a 5 on one die and a 3 on the other. The dice are returned to the shooter, who is about to roll again. Obviously the 5 and the 3 contained on each die could easily come out again. And, in fact, the odds of that happening are no different than were the odds of a 5 or a 3 being rolled the first time. In roulette the same logic applies. Let’s say the croupier spins the ball and it ends up falling into number 15. The physical pocket corresponding to number 15 always remains in the roulette wheel. So when the dealer spins again a few minutes later, number 15 has as much chance of coming out again as it did the first time. In simple terms this concept is called “replacement,” or in probability theory, the “Law of Independent Trials.” Now on to special blackjack, and notice the difference. When the dealer finishes dealing a hand, the used cards are placed in the discard tray—not to be used again until after the next shuffle. (Obviously, the shuffle at the beginning of each deal or “shoe” represents “ground zero”) For this example let’s say the 3 of diamonds was among those cards just dealt in a single deck game. A hard fact has just been established. The 3 of diamonds cannot be dealt again until after the next shuffle. Think about it. In no other game does such an absolute present itself, where knowledge of the past can and will have a direct effect on the future. The same logic holds true for multiple-deck games, only on a lesser scale. In a six-deck game where there are a total of 24 3s, after one hand in which a 3 is dealt, you can rest assured that only 23 3s are left in the shoe. Although such specific information as knowing exactly how many of any particular card remains in the deck or decks at any given moment isn’t humanly possible to track and process to one’s advantage, nevertheless, this represents the basic premise on which all responsible card counting methods are based.
So where and from whom did all of this originate?
Card counting was first developed and proven to be a viable method by Dr. Edward O. Thorp, then a professor of mathematics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The year was 1960, and using the University’s IBM 704 computer, Dr. Thorp was able to formulate and test his theory that a significant advantage could be obtained by a blackjack player able to follow a predetermined strategy and keep some sort of track of high and low cards Blackjack tournaments as they were being dealt. His research began three years after a technical paper appeared in the “Journal of the American Statistical Association” entitled, “The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack,” written by Roger R. Baldwin, Wilbert E. Cantey, Herbert Maisel, and James P. McDermott of the U.S. Army’s Aberdeen Proving Ground. “The Optimum Strategy in Blackjack” outlined the first bona fide version of a “basic strategy,” but it was Dr. Thorp and his exhaustive computer simulations that led to the first comprehensive playing and card counting strategy that could successfully beat the game. A year after proving his method in live casino play, the first edition of Thorp’s 1962 best-selling book Beat the Dealer was published, and revealed to the masses just how blackjack could be beaten.
